Keeneland hosts the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on Saturday. The morning-line favorite is expected to be a three-horse affair, but smart money may sink into just two of those, She Feels Pretty and Soprano. Both horses have good credentials, so there is likely to be a genuine fight between them. But Soprano is more special with her worth for what turns out to be a close-finish race.
The 5-2 favorite is fresh off a pair of solid graded-stakes placings but burned money in her last two. Coming off the Hilltop Stakes win three back, she came into her previous pair of races as the odds-on favorite and ran good but losing efforts. With that much pressure on her, perhaps the very good feed she's been getting will keep many bettors at bay. Her appeal lies in her proven talent, but at such short odds, it's hard to ignore the risk of overvaluation if things don't break perfectly in her favor.
Soprano makes a stronger case, especially on value. Her near miss in the Matron Stakes (G1) at Leopardstown cement quality for the second favorite, demonstrating just how close she was to two other quality winners. The race shows her as a top-level contender. Of note, Brisnet's class ratings in this contest tend to rank very well. With a Group 3 win earlier this year at Royal Ascot, Soprano has proven she can measure up to higher-level competition, and bettors might be drawn to her, especially if her morning line odds represent the better value.
Meanwhile, Candela, tabbed as the 9-2 third choice, brings a little international intrigue but doesn't seem to fit the same class as Soprano. She probably will pick up some support for her exotic appeal, though her record on soft ground and her tough outside post position at 9 should temper expectations. Historically, posts 10-12 in nine-furlong turf races at Keeneland with 10-12 starters have only produced three winners out of 61 tries, a seriously daunting task for her.
Other horses include Grayosh, who outran She Feels Pretty in their most recent meeting, but that race would have been much easier for Grayosh had it not been for a poor break. Nevertheless, based on Grayosh's last one on top, this horse has an entirely different test with another wide post of the 10 that line up against her, compared to the rail she drew in an eight-horse field last time out.
While both She Feels Pretty and Soprano offer compelling cases to cover the race from a multi-race wagering perspective, those seeking to take their favorite home might find Soprano the better value. With her proven class and recent efforts on firm ground, there's little reason why she can't prepare to be at her best. Of course, value hunting may also steer bettors toward a possible long shot in the 10-1 to 15-1 neighborhood if one of those lines drifts up on race day.
